When Adobe launched this kind of solution and when they made it compulsory in order to obtain the most recent version of their tools, some people warned that this was a major blow into the capacity to maintain a reliable capacity to work on our photos. Most either ignored the warning, downplayed its importance or or did not understand the full breadth of the risk. Today, the reality check is here; And it’s hurting real bad with thousands of professionnals waiting for the service to come back while trying to explain to their customers that nothing can be done until Adobe finds a solution (
I sympathize sincerely).

Of course, this suspended animation state is bad in itself (nobody missed that). But this is highlighting the issues at hand that were less obvious or more difficult to understand.

1. Unique/single failure point: If/when Adobe fails, we have no other option than wait. We are used to having a computer fail or a software stopping to work and -usually- it’s only (!) a matter of moving the DVD to a new PC, switching over to another workstation or another professional. Now, all Adobe customers fail in the same minute. This is a systemic risk like we are afraid of in the global bank system. No fall back option.
2. Opacity: The fact that Adobe Creative Cloud is far outside the scope of its users (except maybe some global-level customers who may have a direct line with Adobe management) makes it nearly impossible to have visibility. And in this kind of situation, we, the users, want/need to know immediately a/ what is happening, b/ what we can do to mitigate the situation (even if nothing is possible), c/ how/when the solution will be available. [And today, Adobe communication is an exemple… of what should not be done]

Is ease of subscription worht it? Is the flexibility of having always the latest release version at your hand worth it? This is anybody’s choice and the choice cannot be done for you. But, since we have some time on our hands (if your customers are not shooting on the phone right now), it’s time to think about our choices.

If Canon Imaging is still growing thanks to a strongly depreciated Yen (given by Mr. Abe), the total number of shipped parts is dropping (-21% from 2013). And the compact cameras are going through the floor (-28%). Interchangeable Lens Digital Cameras are a fuzzy category (including DSLR and others), but the results are relatively good with (only) a 7% loss in shipped quantities.

Based upon this, it’s no surprise that Canon may be re-considering the importance of staying in the entry market where the competition comes from Chinese-designed and -produced cameras at bargain basement prices and from smartphones as expensive as many cameras but available at all time in our pockets. There was no such official information, but it’s heard through the grapevine that the decision may laready have been taken to move out of the entry-level point-and-shoot cameras to concentrate on more high-end products.

What do I think about it? It would make sense and it would be very consistent with the overall marketing strategy of the big brands (starting with Canon, Nikon and Sony) which are trying to elevate the performance of their products (bigger, more expensive, more pro DSLR; sometimes, going all out for the retro-fashion like with the Nikon Df; bigger sensors with the Full Frame sensors on every camera including the smallest ones). One possibility would still be for Canon to sub-contract these difficult entry-level products to Chinese designers with only a Canon label on top of them (to keep a fake market presence).

You bought a 35mm f/1.4 DG HSM with a Canon mount but you wanted to move on and take advantage of the newest Nikon DSLR? Well, OK. you just have to send back the lens to Sigma to have it refitted at the Sigma USA service center into a Nikon-mount version of the same lens. No need to sell all your lenses on eBay when switching brands.

Prices: between $80/100€ (for a DN lens for hybrid cameras) and $250/325€ (for a 120-300mm f/2,8 “Sport”). [source DPreview].

This is a true world-wide premiere but the surprise is less in the technology than in the announcement process: Nothing filtered out on any Internet web site until the very last hours. Nevertheless, it certainly took more than a year for Sigma to organize this conversion service and to present the seven first lenses covered by it.

Here, I find to refreshing lessons:

1. Even a company like Sigma which is not considered as paranoid can perfectly hide such a ground-breaking strategy, including when the actual products which it is based upon are on the shelves already (the first lenses have been announced without uncovering one of their most significant features in the interest of preserving the surprise expected from the conversion service announcement itself). Kudos to Sigma!
2. This aptitude to master the communication for a photo equipment manufacturer leads me to openly ask the question of the operation of those Internet web sites that make all their business out of publishing (actively and continuously) rumors on the web. Where are their informations coming from? Comparable experience from other industry sectors (i.e. automobile) shows that there are two sources: On the one hand, small-time attention-seekers basing their “leaks” on probable or predictable informations (intelligent analysis easily leads to reliable but unoriginal data) ; On the other hand, brands and manufacturers embed these web sites into their marketing strategies and distill data according to plans and schedules they define.

We keep reading these rumor sites. The newspapers also submit themselves to the tyranny of more or less organized leaks. But we must remember that despite the continuous efforts to appear independent, professional and objective, the information there is either unfounded or mostly directed by the brands (rumor? disinformation? leaks? No! Marketing).

• Nikon launches an 800mm f/5.6 which is becoming the biggest product of its catalog.
• Canon is still testing the all-new, all-beautiful 200-400mm f/4 (with integrated 1.4x f)
• Sony should renew its 70-400mm with an evolution whose content is still quite unclear.

These lenses will certainly be nearly impossible to purchase without winning the Lottery or holding a bank up (but from what I hear about their financial situation, even this may not be a viable option) but they may be attracting the attention of a few pro photogs and triggering some dreams from sports and wildlife photographers.

Now that smoke and dust are settling down we can see more clearly (it produced a small hike up in the stock prices and we heard that the rumors of mafia crime implication are no longer credible). The financial status stays very difficult, at best. All the analysts are agreeing on the prediction of a capital raise to bring some new cash (though it will certainly get the previous owners and the current management expelled).

But the conditions are ill chosen. Specifically, Olympus has a tough choice to make:

1. either they wait for the troubles to fade out, and the company will run out of cash; They will have to sell parts, the photo division now becomes “the crown’s jewels” to be auctioned off, if it happens soon.
2. or they try to quickly raise new funds on the market [1], and the management will be quickly shown the exit door by the new owners.

In this last case, the big question is “Who would want of that?” The names most commonly heard are:

• Sony: They have enough free cash, but what would they look for in such a mess, except a fast investment with an even faster cash out?
• Fujifilm: They are already present on very similar markets (Medical Imaging and Photography) but they may loose even their shirt and their boots at this table. According to Reuters, they did not decide yet.
• Panasonic: could be interested in grabbing some patents, some designers and the means to reboot its own photo camera business.

So, we will have to stay alert for news in this beginning of the year to know how Olympus will end: Eaten by a raider or lightened by a severe diet?

It’s now time to look back at the year behind us and try and see what is coming in 2012.

2011

Two features were really striking in 2011:

1. Natural disasters: The earthquake in Japan and the floods in Thailand have been claiming lives and hitting hard on the photography industry.
2. Sony had a glowing track of new products.

The Spring 2011 earthquake in Japan was right in front of major photo industries and we all remember that the consequences have been devastating for both the Japanese people and an industry whose main centers were very near the epicenter. Nikon was certainly among the first victims, but nearly all other companies stumbled.

As if that was not enough, Thailand experienced heavy floods that are just now beginning to really recede. Again, Nikon was a very visible victim.

The employees of all these companies fought for both their security and the well-being of their companies. Some of them even succeeded in avoiding some of the most visible impacts. For example, nearly no sales were lost during the Christmas season, but this came from hard work more than actual luck.

Despite these tough conditions, Sony has made impressive announcements both in the DSLR camera and hybrid camera markets. You may think what you want of the qualities of the new semi-transparent mirrors for the Alpha SLR series and of the APS-C hybrid NEX cameras with inter-changeable lenses, they both brought new features, new ideas and even new ways to look at a digital camera that all other photo companies now need to take into account.

The Sony Alpha 77 (and the Alpha 65) appeared as a major step forward and the NEX-7 and NEX-5n have been such a commercial success that Sony is currently reviewing their strategy to cash quickly on these.

Add to these that some actors left or nearly left the field (Kodak selling the last parts of the photography business, Olympus fighting for its life after the surprising financial decisions of its former management) and we have a pretty unusual year on our hands.

2012

So, what will a new year bring to the photographers? We all know that reading the future is an exercise that is both humbling and funny when you look back at last year’s predictions. But, there are a few elements that can already be plotted and should not be too far from the mark.

• Sony will extend quickly the lens list for the NEX family. Probably adding new cameras in the second half of 2012.
• Sony will produce two (maybe three) new Full Frame SLR cameras to replace the old Alpha 900. Resolution may be enormous since they will probably apply the technology from the existing 24-MP APS-C sensor, leading to something like a 33-MP sensor (or more if their engineers have a bit of fun with silicon wafers).
• Nikon, which has seen all its plans delayed by Mother Nature, will launch first a D4 (11 fps, 16 MP, up to ISO 102400 or ISO 204800) and a D800 (33 MP or 36 MP, up to ISO 25600, at 4 fps), then could well launch a replacement to the D7000 and D300s (either a D7100 with heavy body or D400).
• Nikon could also start at least a new entry-level camera around the end of 2012.
• Canon is going to replace the EOS 5D MkII (no surprise) but they could be preparing radically new products for entry-level photo markets.
• Pentax needs to find new directions now that it is in the hands of Ricoh. 2012 should be interesting: Either Ricoh will merely scrap the SLR business or they will launch a new family of cameras in 2012.
• Olympus cannot launch anything significant before they -really- find closure to their financial woes. It has already been so long that the chances of survival are probably under 50% now even if a buyer appears.
• Samsung is probably no longer trying to fight in the SLR market, but will keep adding to their hybrid line of digital cameras. They could become a major actor, annoying even Sony here.
• Panasonic will have a hard time finding ways renewing the 4/3 and µ-4/3 formats.
• Leica is in another world altogether.
• Sigma is already dead for the SLR, but they don’t know it yet.

All in all, I believe that the SLR market is condensing on a relatively small number of brands, while the hybrid market seems here to stay with even less players.

Since most companies want to move the awful year of 2011 back in the nightmare scene, expect some serious technology push, probably for the easy targets: more pixels, more sensitivity, more gadgets. The chances of seeing a real technology revolution seem small.

As a matter of fact, we are witnesses to an almost unbelievable financial chronicle on a background of fraud, creative accounting (of the kind that leads company Officers to jails) and possible links to organized crime. Would you believe it? Of course, we must be aware that there may be some unfounded data here, but a few facts are now official.

The story starts back in 1998 when the Japanese finance world was rocked by rumors of huge losses at Olympus. Then, everything went back to normal after some strong comments from Olympus management… Up to when the ex-Executive Officer of Olympus UK, Michael Woodford, started talking and singing to the whistle-blowing tune. At first quite skeptical, we heard that the mother company was several years in trying to hide huge losses from the end of the ’90s through financial practices less than legally sound.

Olympus would have lost enormous amounts of money in the ’80s and ’90s in unsafe short-term investments. This did not look too unusual, even for an industrial company. But it starts getting weird when we hear that the company would have been trying to hide these losses (probably around 700 million US dollars, according to official declarations; But it is said that there are about 5 billion US dollars missing in the balance sheet) by investing in young and fast-growing companies. As a matter of fact, it would have been -only- a way to write off quick huge losses rather than any other thing. So, it amounts to a colossal accounting fraud, maybe hidden behind the cooperation of some financial institutions.

The fact that this is an accounting technique so well-known that it has a Japanese name (“zaitech“) does not seem enough to exonerate lies on a long period of time. Olympus is risking a de-listing from Stock Exchange markets. Its managers could be confronted to the judge. In Japan, in the US or in the UK. It has also been said that this scandal also includes connections to organized crime (far worse than a league of shabby finance directors) which would have been recruited (and paid) to help build the fraud.

The stock fell through the ground (see above). The situation is serious enough that the company may be crushed and could simply disappear (after a quick de-listing).

The consequence could be dramatic for the photo camera brand. Even if photo activities could be sold by the manufacturer of endoscopic and medical equipment, the current situation of the camera division is not very favorable and there is a significant risk that nobody would buy it if this drags on for too long.

For several months, I have been predicting the possible disappearance of one or more photo brands from the D-SLR market. I often said that I saw Sigma as the most likely candidate because of its hesitant and inconsistent strategy here. But Olympus could overtake them in this dramatic race to the crash-test wall. Let’s meet again before the end of 2011 for more. It would leave only memories of marvelous cameras which reached semi-mythical status.

Nevertheless, in front of this fast-moving news landscape, we should not under-estimate the action of individual egos of the managers and ex-managers: Michael Woodford is leading a campaign to be called back at the head of Olympus as a savior.

Sources:

• New York Times
• Bloomberg
• New York Times

For the follwing new products, Sony just removed all forecast of availability.

• NEX-7
• NEX-5N
• NEX-C3
• Alpha 65

Source: Steve Huff.

High waters are rushing through Thailand. The Bangkok county is now seriously preoccupied by the devastation and the victims involved. Water is invading all parts of the Bangkok surroundings one after the other. Local administration stated on Sunday that there were already 297 dead or disappeared people since last July. But the companies are all very concerned.

In the photography world, there are mainly two companies under the attention and that are going to pay a high price since the Ayutthaya region saw 93 big plants and 8500 employees saw their work place and tools disappear under dark waters. To be more precise, since the rupture of the last levees, water raised over the 1st floor! which is not a good omen for the repair activities. Bangkok, the state capital, seems to be unscathed yet and (relatively) protected. But there is no margin anymore.

The most impacted photography companies are clearly Sony and Nikon. Sony has lost all capacity to manufacture DSLR photo cameras. This is certainly going to be economically dramatic. Some like Amazon have first published banners to redirect customers to other brands and removed all reservation pages for new products since (Sony Alpha 77 or Sony Nex-7). The others photo cameras from that brand (all of them!) are now only sold from existing stocks (still large stocks, but…).

Similarly, Nikon had to evacuate its local plant and it is now under water with dark and far perspectives to restart (no forecast for a restart at the headquarters). This is hitting hard all entry-level and mid-range cameras (including the Nikon D7000 and Nikon D5100) and a large number of standard lenses. After the closure of the Sendai, Japan plant, this is a very hard blow for the yellow brand.

For these two brands of photo cameras, the consequences may be quite dramatic. We already saw Nikon re-organizing its price structure at worldwide level, probably to take into account its manufacturing difficulties. This will not ease the situation and restart will certainly be very difficult depending on the exact duration of the rain fall. But we can forecast some commercial stress while we are now reaching the intense sales period of Christmas and the end of the year. And the availability of some new products (particularly for Sony which had seemed to be out of most of the Japan issues) may have to be pushed far in the future.

It appears that I was right: Pioneer just announced that they will start by creating a joint venture (JV) in Brazil with Asia Optical to manufacture some compact Point’n Shoot photo cameras. They will probably be sold (mostly) in China through Suning, but it is not clear how and when they will extend out of Asia.

This is a first for the Pioneer brand. But they have enough money to try and enter a market which has been shaken up and offers some opportunities to extend far from their original business of audio electronics.

The location in Manaus, Brazil is easily explained by the existence of a duty-free industrial zone that is attracting a number of companies despite being a bit far from a large harbour.

Press Release

Pioneer and Asia Optical Agree to Establish a Production Joint Venture in Brazil
Aiming for ¥15 billion in sales in 2015

Pioneer Corporation announced today that it has reached an agreement with Asia Optical Group, an alliance partner, to establish a joint venture production facility in Manaus, Brazil. Through the establishment of this joint venture, Pioneer will aim to expand its business by strengthening its operational systems in the Brazilian market, which is expected to continue to grow strongly. Pioneer will also aim for better quality, lower costs, and shorter lead times resulting from the shift to local procurement of mechanical components. The joint venture will target annual sales of 15 billion yen in 2015. See below for detailed information about the business description, launch schedule, and so on.

Business description

The joint venture will engage in the following business activities in Brazil, directed
towards growth markets.
– Production and sale of mechanical components
– Undertaking contracts for EMS manufacturing
– Production of digital cameras

Launch schedule, etc.

The plan is to establish a joint venture in Manaus, Brazil by about September 2011, and to start producing digital cameras from the end of the year. The joint venture will further expand its business by constructing a new plant in the first half of 2012.

Through this joint venture, Pioneer and Asia Optical will work to lower material costs globally by taking advantage of the synergy arising from their mutual expertise in procuring components.

Outline of the joint venture

(i) Company name: Pioneer Yorkey do Brasil Ltda.
(ii) Date for the joint venture: Scheduled for September 2011
(iii) Location: Manaus, Brazil (in the site of Pioneer do Brasil)
(iv) Stated capital: 50 million Real (Pioneer do Brasil 51%, Asia Optical Group 49%)
(v) President: Tatsuji Shimizu (Plant manager of Pioneer do Brasil, Manaus)

This is interesting to see how a previous article I wrote about the possible re-structuration of the photo market through some significant acquisitions has a nearly immediate echo.

Actually, Kenko-Tokina, one of the companies I was mentioning as possibly interested in moving forward, has officialized its acquisition of COKIN SAS, the French leader of filter making which had been an major source of innovations in the 1990s.

Random luck?

By the way, I also wrote a recent paper on filters in digital photography.

Press Release

PARIS — July 5, 2011 Kenko-Tokina Company Ltd., Japan today announced that it has acquired the famous French filter manufacturer COKIN SAS.

COKIN is the creator and leader in Square filters systems, exporting 90% of its production to more than 100 countries around the world.

Mr Toru Yamanaka (President of Kenko-Tokina Co., Ltd.) said: “I have always been impressed with the creativity that COKIN filters and accessories offer. I admire and greatly respect the professionalism of this line of fine products which reflect the French ingenuity. We are very proud to add this filter manufacturer to our Team.”

Kenko-Tokina Co., Ltd. was established in 1957 and now has 10 factories and subsidiaries worldwide. They are a world-leader in round photographic filters and other fine optical products.

COKIN France S.A.S.U. (new company name) will stay independent, with its own manufacturing, marketing and worldwide distribution network.

Mr Marc Heintz (Director of Sales, COKIN France): “Kenko brings to us a strong backing of finance and supply of raw materials, which will allow us to expand and bring new innovative products to the market once again.”

With this acquisition, both companies will expand their services and bring the flourishing photographic accessory market their expertise and enthusiasm for today’s exciting imaging world.

Since the relationship between Pentax and Samsung was no longer very tight (Samsung is now convinced that they ca evolve along without the help of the Pentax DSLR technology and they demonstrated they were right), we knew that there was the need for choosing between going under silently and investing again in Pentax to help it join again the fight with the current heavy-weights like Canon, Nikon and Sony. Hoya chose to throw in the towel (seeing the figures published by Hoya, I have no difficulty understanding why), and Pentax chose to find a new godfather with sufficiently deep pockets to attempt a new effort (before they are really distanced by the bicycle pack as we are seeing things in these Tour de France times).

This is opening the possibility to ask some more questions about the future. First and foremost, the future of Pentax. Ricoh was not very clear on their intents up to now out of the statement that the Pentax brand will remain for current products and that it will still build quality products (Who would write something else?) We are made to understand that Pentax will receive new resources to develop its next generations of DSLR cameras.

Nevertheless, it is striking to see that once again a secondary actor or an partner external to the high-end photography world is reaching out for the DSLR market. There had been -among others- Sony buying Konica-Minolta (after Konica had purchased Minolta of course), or Samsung investing in Pentax, or Hoya purchasing Pentax.

As always, the successes are not always at the end of the road for such big financial operations (but buying Pentax for a few millions is not a merger of equals between Daimler and Chrysler). But we also see that this can lead to interesting results: Sony demonstrated being able to use the DSLR technologies at all price levels and to deploy a line of DSLR cameras incorporating 90% of pro camera features in a price envelope really at amateur level.

So, the question asked really concerns the next possible purchases in this market. I think that several companies are currently exposed to this kind of fast evolution:

• Olympus is no longer sure to be willing to manufacture DSLR cameras but does not seem to be growing steadily
• Sigma has nearly left the race despite the recent maneuvers around the Sigma SD1

And we can also think about the companies owning brands that are easily recognizable (so, with a large value) but which have been playing in second league since several years:

• Fuji
• Why not Leica which has mass craftsmanship status (but it may be 100% OK for them)

I believe that some actors may be tempted to act before the positions are too firmly fixed in the market and the shakeup following the Japan crisis of Spring 2011 may play the trigger role. Who could act up?

Let’s think about the internal actors which already have huge interests in photography. Samsung does not seem to be ready to disperse itself and will keep working by itself with its own teams. Panasonic (or even Olympus) could be willing to re-enforce their presence by aggregating external strengths (Kodak no longer has the ability to maneuver at these investment levels). But a lens manufacturer like Tamron (Samyang is still much too small) could seize the opportunity.

Moreover, we can look at some external actors decided to have their funds growing through investment in a domain parallel to their original skills. The most astonishing name (but not completely impossible) is Apple under the very stringent condition to be able to reconcile very distant corporate cultures. Philips or Pioneer or Hyundai are also more credible candidates if they want to reach out for photography.

If this is not enough, we need to reach less credible opportunities like movements from Adobe (down side: risking to alienate all camera manufacturers to acquire only one) or from Dell / HP / Acer (down side: DSLR are quite far from their usual customers, but compact cameras could prove more attractive as it was the case in the past).

Obviously, only time will tell. But it’s clear that the number of targets is relatively large today and they are potentially attractive for a take-over. Moreover, the time is logically right while the sedimentation beginning to happen in the middle- and high-range of photography since a few years (the losers did not loose their brand value yet) and the arrival of new technologies susceptible to shake the market up (continuous improvement of sensitivity of digital sensors, semi-transparent mirrors, photo-video convergence). But the launch window could also close itself within 12 to 18 months.

Update: A list of companies susceptible to participate to a large financial operation

Japanese industrial companies with more than 1 billion US dollars in cash available for new investments (Source: Bloomberg) :

• Denso Corp.
• Fujifilm Holdings Corp.
• Kuraray Co.
• Kyocera Corp.
• Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corp.
• Ono Pharmaceutical Co.
• Rohm Co.
• Sega Sammy Holdings Inc.
• SMC Corp.
• Sony Corp.
• Suzuki Motor Corp.
• Taisho Pharmaceutical Co.
• Yamato Holdings Co.

1 billion USD, this is 10,000 (Oop!s) times what Pentax costed…

Nikon stated that its recent financial year has been deeply marked by the immediate consequences of the earthquake, but out of the already know closure of the Sendai plant (with a probable re-opening in a still-unclear future) we did not get a lot of precise and direct data. The big sales of the D3100 and of the D700 have been noticed but we know that the D700 was built in Sendai (some limited shortages can be expected all through 2011). For most of the other SLR cameras, Nikon must rebuild the stocks but there is not any more trauma in sight.

All the photo brands have been similarly hit, and this gives some astonishing delays and on deliveries, without any easy forecast. There was a lot of talk about the Nikon Coolpix S4100 and S6100. The Fuji Finepix X100 also goes through bouts of shortage (where eBay prices flare up) and becomes available again (sometimes for only a few hours or a few days, depending on the shop or the exact status of immediate stocks). On the opposite side, Canon recently indicated that they expected to see manufacturing back to normal as soon as end of June (correcting the supply chain issues).

Obviously, the manufacturers are not in any hurry to confirm this kind of trouble. Simultaneously because the rumor could hinder long-term sales, and because the actual situation is much more complex than a simple shortage (very low stock levels make very short non-availability periods and very different geographical situations). It is now pretty sure that (and this is a bad news for the eBay speculative sellers) there will be no dramatic shortage (except maybe for a few select pro models which have been “surprised” with nearly no stock when they were reaching end-of-life).

In parallel, the commercial launches of nearly all the photo products planned for this Summer (and even Fall 2011) are either simply delayed or kept in place but with associated “tweaked” availability dates. As for other industries, resellers have been informed that “in front of the success of product X”, shipment delays must be expected at launch time. the first victims will be the shows and fairs from August to October 2011. Not many news, announcements made without any marketing punch. The real boom back to the market will happen after Christmas, for 2012.

So, no catastrophe and certainly no significant price hikes out of local issues and the manipulative pressure of some speculators. However, the possibility to negotiate prices down (even on cameras already a little old) are reduced up to October 2011. Be patient.

Nevertheless, while we look at the industrial impact and its influence on our leisure and photo activities, I urge you to remember about the possibility we all have to help the Japanese Red Cross Society.

Apparently, Samyang has solved most of the issues it had with supplying raw glass from Japan for its new lenses. The Samyang 8mm f/3.5 Fish-eye CS VG10 lens, designed for the Sony NEX-VG10 large-sensor, is announced and immediately shipping.

Also, the Samyang 35mm f/1.4 AS UMC manual-focus lens is available for both Canon and Nikon.

I dare say NO.

While it’s true to say that the impact of the 11th March earthquake has been very large on the photo manufacturers, it had only a limited role in moving the big photo fair. The first reason is astonishingly simple and less pleasant to hear in the offices of the PMA itself: This show is falling through the floor since a few years and has been randomly looking for a solution for a few years already.

You have to remember that the PMA Show has long been held behind doors open only to the professional photographers, the distributors and the industry. But it was one of the largest venue for photography-related news and announcements. In the recent years, photography -who could miss that?- went through a series of revolutions and 2008 was specially hard for weakened economies. In 2009, the show did not succeed to compensate this in its home town, Las Vegas, Nevada: A 22% drop in participation, often considered the consequence of the hard competition from the CES Show. But 2010 has also seen the negative effects of a migration to the much-less-famous town of Anaheim, California: A real litany of complaints from the participants and a limited presence. This culminated into Canon not willing to be there.

So, the PMA had decided to kick-start the machine again in 2011 moving back to Vegas. And opening the doors to the greater public for a day (which was thought to be good for financing part of the costs with tickets). At the same time, the show would change its name to become CliQ 2011. However, this late a change for a public event in Vegas in September proved difficult.

The management was left with a half-baked offer not really attracting visitors (they tried hard -and failed- to collect advance fees and tickets) and pros still were dazzled by the changes.

Japan certainly played a role here: Photo brands are not ready to commit themselves now, even if everybody is sure that September is the right time to restart the marketing machine and the ma.

So, the PMA made a strategical choice, difficult but logical: Let’s partner with an organization which is perfectly tuned to the public needs for an electronics show, the CES. This in January the largest event of the electronics gadget industry for the public. A strategic alliance between the two organizers will limit the risks (and the costs) for the Photo Marketing Association.

Conclusion: Bye bye CliQ 2011 in September; the PMA is back under the name of PMA@CES in 2012 between the 10th and the 13th January. This is betting a large sum on a weak hand, but the PMA is near to the bottom. We’ll see if the sons of Vegas will succeed here. In January 2012.

photo © 2010 Cliff | more info (via: Wylio)

International market research company IDC released its analysis of the 2010 market for digital cameras.

Worldwide Digital Camera Market Shares by Vendor
(in number of cameras sold)
================================================
Vendor                2010            2009
------------------------------------------------
Canon                  19               19
Sony                   17.9             16.9
Nikon                  12.6             11.1
Samsung                11.1             10.9
Kodak                   7.4              8.8
Panasonic               7.6              7.6
Olympus                 6.1              6.2
Fuji                    4.9              5.4
Casio                   4                4.7
Pentax                  1.5              1.7
Vivitar                 1.2              0.7
Other                   6.7              7
-------------------------------------------------

Canon won’t move from the 1st position. Sony and Nikon keep fighting their way to the top, but Sony still could not reach for the highest step. The others did not really move except for Kodak slowly slipping down.

This gives the image of a very mature market where companies with long-acquired positions are difficult to oust even by very aggressive relatively new competitors like Samsung stuck at around 11% market share.

photo credit: eirikso

Broadly summarized, it would be something like:

• On top of the small direct devastation, the mere stoppage of the production is a significant problem for plants.
• Manufacturing sites like Hitachi Display (Chiba prefecture), NEC’s Gen 2 (Akita prefecture), Toshiba Fukaya & Ishikawa, or Epson Gen 2 are mostly producing small-sized panels, with little or no impact on the bulk of the Flat Panel Displays market (flat panel TV screens). [But this is a direct hit for other applications like photo gear, of course]
• the article covers the technologies in order to assess the situation and we can see (or discover in many cases) the diversity of the products that enter in a lowly LCD: glass tanks (to manufacture raw glass panels aka mother glass panels), electronic components, color filters, Anisotropic Conductive Film (or ACF) to glue electronic components onto the glass surface.
• Manufacturing tools and development tools are also hit, but since you don’t purchase them each and every day the immediate risk is quite low.
• The actual stock levels at earthquake time for many components or elements is decisive for long-term consequences.

From what I heard personally and more directly, I can confirm this analysis. Despite its very geenral for, it is of the utmost precision (and this was expected from a well-informed technology blog like DisplaySearch Blog).

But they went even further into details with another article (Emerging Disruptions to the FPD Supply Chain). Here, you will find details about several other key technologies which were not initially included in the first article:

• NF3 (Nitrogen Trifluoride), a gas used for cleaning deposition chambers. The stocks were very low already and the earthquake put this all in serious shortage.
• ITO (Indium Tin Oxide), the chemical component used to draw the invisible conductive tracks on the surface of the LCD is usually provided as pellets or targets whose production is coming essentially from Japan and one of its main manufacturers is currently out of operation.
• Color pigments are a specialty for several Japanese companies and some colors are in near total shortage at a global level, even if some replacements may be quickly developed.

Listing Hirose, manufacturer of micro-connectors, will be particularly noticed by photographers understanding that Canon and Nikon are among their most prominent customers.

• The micro-connectors used on the LCD modules or around them (but also between many of the photo camera components) have also been dramatically hit.
• Some production equipments (steppers) from Nikon for production of semi-conductors are terribly hit too. And some industrial launches for the future (in some months) may be very seriously in trouble, including some new microprocessors or recent technology display panels (like AMOLED for example).

photo credit: Andrew Mason

From what one heres, all this industry is currently trying to assess the exact situation and the amount of degradations (this mere remark nearly a month after the tsunami gives an idea of the range of difficulties). I was informed of engineers moving around their plant with the only help of a hand flash light or of a headlight, while most of the company personnel was not even able to reach the factory itself.

I’ll let you imagine the task at hand. I let you imagine the energy that they are all using to re-start or boot-strap this very sensitive and normally very fine-tuned engine that is at the core of the industry.

Yesterday announcement by Sony (via TTKN) was also informing us the several plants of the Sony Chemical & Information Device Corporation division (See previous lines about ACF) had not been able to fully restart operations on the 28th of March.

No information about how they computed these figures, but the readers of YLovePhoto know what it is all about the Japan earthquake and its consequences.

Keep reading about the associated tags of tsunami, earthquake, Japan.

Source: Bloomberg.

Canon Press Release 04-April-2011

Recovery Status Report for Canon Inc. and Canon Group Following Great East Japan Earthquake

TOKYO, April 4, 2011—The Great East Japan Earthquake, which struck off the northeast coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu on March 11, caused massive damage and loss of life in the area.
We at Canon extend our heartfelt condolences to all those affected by this disaster, along with their families and loved ones.
We pray for the safety of everyone in affected areas and hope that the region will soon be able to begin the rebuilding and healing process.

As for the Canon Group, immediately following the earthquake, Canon Inc. established the Earthquake Disaster Recovery Task Force (Task Force Chief: Chairman & CEO Fujio Mitarai), launching recovery activities spanning development, production and sales operations through a collective effort across the Canon Group.

Although the Canon Group sustained damage to buildings and production equipment, a concerted Company-wide effort has already made possible the resumption of production activities at multiple Canon Inc. operation sites and Canon Group companies. In addition, through ongoing recovery measures being carried out in conjunction with related divisions, all Canon Inc. operation sites and Canon Group companies are expected to achieve a full recovery as of the end of April.

With regard to the multiple operation sites and Canon Group companies in Japan that sustained no direct damage due to the earthquake and its aftermath, the Company is left with no alternative but to continue adjusting some production activities due to rolling blackouts and procurement conditions for raw materials, parts and other supplies.

The status of major Canon Group operating sites as of Monday, April 4, is outlined below.

Operating Status of Operation Sites and Canon Group Companies

Canon Group Operation Sites

• Optics R&D Center, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

• Utsunomiya Plant, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Production to sequentially resume from mid April

• Utsunomiya Optical Products Plant, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Operations to resume in mid April, with production to sequentially resume from same time

• Toride Plant (Toride, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 18 (Fri.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Ami Plant (Inashiki-gun, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 17 (Thur.)
  Currently fully operational

Canon Group Companies

• Canon Precision Inc. (Hirosaki, Aomori Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 23 (Wed.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Canon Chemicals Inc.: Headquarters & Tsukuba Plant (Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture) / Iwama Plant (Kasama, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed at headquarters and Tsukuba Plant on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

  Operations resumed at Iwama Plant on March 28 (Mon.)
  Currently almost fully operational

• Fukushima Canon Inc. (Fukushima, Fukushima Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

• Canon Mold Co., Ltd. (Kasama, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently almost fully operational

• Oita Canon Inc. (Kunisaki, Oita Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on April 1 (Fri.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Nagasaki Canon Inc. (Hasami-cho, Higashisonogi-gun, Nagasaki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 30 (Wed.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Canon Optron, Inc. (Yuki, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Production to sequentially resume from early April

Other Factors

Disclaimer:
The information contained in this news release is current as of the release date.
Please be aware that information regarding circumstances from April 5 onward is subject to change.

Consequently, Samyang has been forced to announce some delays and difficulties to supply their products in the coming months. The list of impacted lenses has not been detailed but it contains many items including the recent

• 7.5mm f/3.5 UMC Fisheye MFT
• 35mm f/1.4 AS UMC

Beware: Other non-listed references are involved too.

No word about the economic/financial consequences to the Samyang Optics Co. Ltd company.

We quickly learned that some plants had been subjected to some destructions and deteriorations directly linked to the earthquake and we start receiving some news on the future consequences, but it is already possible to describe more precisely the kind of impact on the photo industry in the North of Japan and the consequences on the worldwide photo market in the coming months.

First, we can detail the type of immediate deteriorations applied to the industrial equipment. And it is true that an earthquake is never completely transparent, even for a plant specifically well prepared as most Japanese plants. Far from the usual broken glass and fallen objects, there are some internal damages (crumbling walls, falling roofs, machines either broken or merely disturbed, etc.) and some external damages (loss of electrical power, of water and air pressure, of gas supply, etc.) These damages often require very heavy repairs by specialists who are not always immediately available for many reasons including the large number of such operations or the damaged roads and tracks limiting their movements. This is a very first stage that companies must go through in order to evaluate first degree damages and to start urgent repairs. It seems that all companies -even very near to the epicenter like in Sendai- have through this already. Nikon, for example, has indicated very few serious damages to its Sendai plant. Canon and some other companies did the same kind of assessment. It appears that for Fujifilm or Pentax, the impacts were also quite limited (which may still mean fallen walls or events that are totally out of the ordinary in other circumstances – references are definitely different in this context).

But there is still a very specific difficulty to a seismic event like the one of March 2011: The country lost a large part of its capacity to produce electrical power and is today subjected to major power cuts which are rotated though the country. This is limiting the reaction possibilities in many locations.

But this is introducing some very clear preoccupations in the some industry sectors and for some industrial tools. In some plants, the operation must be nearly continuous. Let’s think about theses processes that cannot stop because they need very long times to start or restart: Either because of very long heating times -for example a steel blast furnace, or a silicon mono-crystal ingot production line- which can be measured in hours or days and cannot be stopped every day, even for a short period of one or two hours, or because of setup operations that are either long or difficult -for example, maintaining the extreme tidiness of a clean room requires to have a permanent water and power supply; Any 1-hour interruption may mean days to reach the required cleanliness level.

This is a considerably more impacting for some products that are specifically sensitive for the photo industry like:

• electronic components (when the production is located in Japan, it is hit twice, by the lack of water and electricity, and by utterly complex setup operations)
• glass industry (which uses big ovens whose heating-up times are often measured in days)
• LCD manufacturing (very sensitive to the cleanliness of the industrial environment)

It is now apparent that these elements are intricately nested together. For example, some industrial LCD display suppliers have informed customers of their inability to manufacture displays for lack of one or two electronic components (drivers assembled directly on the LCD glass). Some others have indicated that the lack of a mundane chemical component of filters stuck at the surface of LCD modules would render them unable to manufacture many displays even though the assembly plant itself was unscathed (this particular case seems to be hitting a very large number of LCD manufacturers following the stop of one very specific Japanese plant which is in a world quasi-monopoly). More widely, we heard plant stop announcements at Toshiba (two plants), Texas Instruments (analog and power electronic components), Fujitsu (no less than 5 plants), Nikon (even for electron photo-lithography equipments which could stop and slow down the deployment of the next generation of products at Intel [5]).

On the other hand, the manufacturing of electronic integrated chips should not be hampered by any difficulty in producing mono-crystal ingot of silicon, the foundation of all this industry but whose production has not been directly hit.

Canon was not very clear, but it seems that their glass manufacturing has been hit somewhat. Today’s press release announcing delays to the availability of 300mm f/2.8 L EF, 400mm f/2.8 L EF tele-lenses and 8-15mm f/4 L zoom lens[1] is probably not a random fluke in this context even if the disclosed delay seems small (or, at least, much smaller than the already long wait for these major products).

The situation is much more dramatic for electronic components. Many Japanese industrial companies have told us about significant line stops. Some of them already predict full shipment delays that could be counted in months. Microprocessors, various drivers, voltage regulators, ASICs are already hit. And the most impressive news have not reached the general public and are kept behind closed doors of industrial partnerships. The task forces created between customers and suppliers are facing absolutely daunting obstacles. For example, Peugeot announced yesterday[2] the full stop of the production lines of the 308 (Sochaux, Poissy) for lack of critical electronic chips that are already no longer available. In this case, we’re looking at a microprocessor from Hitachi (the company has five plants more or less severely hit in Japan). Nearly at the same time, General Motors published similar press releases for its American plants[3] in Shreveport, Louisiana or in Buffalo, New York. These giant companies did not publicly disclose (yet) the exact time forecast for these line stops, though.Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, Pentax and the others still have to speak and they will certainly suffer such dire situations at least for some of their products.

And I must point at the fact that these are only indirect consequences less than two weeks after the earthquake. But we know that Panasonic, Fuji or Nikon have plants which suffered seriously from the earthquake (by chance, the Nikon Sendai plant is seated on the heights behind the town and did not see the tsunami itself)). Nikon has already reported being in negotiations with its Notion VTEC partner to move production tools from Sendai to Malaysia.

On this occasion, we learned that some subcontractors were also affected. And we can mention Notion VTEC again, which is a critical supplier of metal focusing barrels (for lenses) and of many other parts of photo cameras and lenses for Canon and Nikon. I can also confirm that some injected parts like the magnesium allow bodies of some photo cameras are in the spotlight (even if not publicly announced).

All this is explaining the Canon press release about the delay that will hit the availability of the Canon EOS 1100D (or Kiss X50) [4]. However, these are only very small delays. But it is still quite probable that the reality will be a little less than this optimistic presentation. Fujifilm also announced potentially significant damages to its Taiwa-Cho plant (less than 20 km from Sendai) with major repercussions on the availability of the Fuji Finepix X100.

So, is the situation desperate? This is not sure yet. For sure, there will be some shortages on some products but it is still very difficult to predict which ones before we can get much more precise information (let’s mention the effort done by Canon to disclose data more precise than the usual).

So, the price increase that can already be observed in some Europe or USA shops are currently not justified by anything else than the speculation and greediness of some who decided to profit from trouble and worries. But it won’t be long before some real trouble comes. It is already quite understandable (if surprising) that the eBay auctions for the Fuji Finepix X100 are flying at stratospheric heights. Some products will certainly be in actual shortage sooner or later. We just don’t know which ones. Yet.

My recommendation? Without waiting to be sure, don’t postpone purchases that were serious about. The next 6 months will be energetically shaking and you don’t want to buy more stuff than necessary in these times to come. And this is without even planning for the quality issues that could raise in this upcoming period of time: Restarting industrial manufacturing tools having been shaken or booting up new production equipment both present serious and specific challenges that are always a little difficult to manage.

However, a few elements can also be collected related the photo industry.

• Nikon Sendai plant (manufacturing D700, D3, D3s cameras; supposedly the future home of the D800 and D4) is very near the epicenter. While Nikon reported that there were no employee injured and that the plant suffered no major trouble, the city of Sendai has been badly hit by the following tsunami and major disruptions have been reported. It means that even if the plant itself is mostly undamaged, we can expect a number of issues related to possible lack of energy, water, transportation, etc.
• Canon stated that 12 people of the Utsunomiya plant are reported with minor injuries. Production has stopped and damaged is behind evaluated while there is no obvious major impact to the plant building and major equipment.
• Panasonic reports a few (probably two) minor injuries at its Lumix plant of Fukushima (in the same Fukushima Prefecture as the Daiishi nuclear power plant which has currently some issues with maintaining its full integrity after stopping production) and at its Sendai plant. Building damage has been observed (ceiling, walls) but no collapse and no fire.
• Sony: not much reported except the evacuation of 6 unnamed Sony plants in the North-Eastern Japan. This are probably manufacturing sites for BluRay discs, batteries, magnetic tapes and magnetic heads. There would be no victim but, after 24 hours, these plants did not restart any production.
• According to Olympus UK, there was no major impact to the group’s plants and production should not be disrupted.
• Pentax: no report.

As we all know, the companies are reporting this kind of information (and we are trying to relay them) with two issues in mind: The safety of people involved and the possible industrial consequences.

In the mean time, you can support the earthquake relief funds by contacting directly the serious actors like Red Cross. Do not fall for the hoaxes and bad people trying to get at your money in these dire times.

AP tells us that on the Japanese market, where Nikon and Canon together loose about 11% of market share, Sony reaches the 15% water mark. The two big brands do not lave their top positions, but Sony is now a clear third runner with a very aggressive range for small- and medium-sized systems (compact and NEX cameras).

Nikon is still very powerful everywhere in the world thanks to (little known fact) an impressive strength for point-and-shoot cameras (they ship as much as they can manufacture) and is nearly certainly preparing the launch in 2011 of a direct competition to Sony NEX (mirror-less cameras with interchangeable lenses). I stay convinced that the yellow brand is ready to fight.

Things are less easy for Canon. Having told clearly that they don’t want to see the SLR cameras competing against a new series, but ready to fight the price war, they are not easily perceived as having the impetus to blow new life into the whole photo Division, even if Canon is still totally unavoidable for SLR’s mainly because its policy of small but repeated increments succeeds in re-assuring more than revolutionary leaps (as difficult to understand as they can be elsewhere on the market).

In a way, this was expected, but the news are now official. Olympus wants to develop itself totally in the EVIL kind of digital, like the cute little PEN cameras.

More precisely, Toshiyuki Terada, Product Manager at the SLR Planning Department of Olympus, said to Fotopolis that this implied both not replacing the current DSLR cameras like the Olympus E-620 and removing -later in the future- all the SLR cameras from the Olympus range.

This could not be clearer, but it’s true that the market of the low-cost SLR camera is highly competitive and a place where Canon, Nikon, Pentax and Sony are fighting to the death (they are the only ones currently able to keep investing here).

photo credit: Microsoft Sweden

The rumor started yesterday (Friday): Microsoft was on the verge of buying Adobe right off the market. The Adobe stock price shot up by 17% during the day (triggering an automated circuit-breaker to stop pricing), after the announcement of a meeting between Microsoft Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Steve Ballmer and Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen.

But the rumor seems already blown out with analysts remarking that the anti-trust authorities of many a country would find reason for investigation and that the expected gains from a simple purchasing are not as high as those coming from a technical and commercial cooperation which would be much easier to setup.

Source: Bloomberg.

photo credit: Pascal Vuylsteker

Canon is still the first photo camera manufacturer in the world (counted in total turnover). this comes firstly from the enviable position on the Digital SLR market, a real cash cow. But competition is here and we could learn some of what they intend to do to improve their relative position.

Nikon, first photo camera manufacturer (when counted in units shipped – which comes mostly and somewhat unexpectedly from mad sales of Coolpix compact cameras), thinks about climbing the competition ladder by adding a new line of EVIL cameras (compact cameras with interchangeable lenses) which could rival the existing Sony NEX, or Samsung NX, etc. This is not a bad idea, since it is also paralleled by many efforts to make the Nikon SLR cameras ever more attractive.

Sony, on the other hand, announced targeting the second step on the podium. And, as of now, they already got a 2nd spot in South Korea on the mirror-less cameras alone, with nothing less than 40% market share with NEX only. As this is a market everybody expects to blow to enormous proportions in the short-term future, the approach seems quite logical.

So, where does this leave Canon? They clearly stated their intention to stay with low-priced SLR cameras. Canon knows how to build them and they proved this ability to drop prices unexpectedly down, several times in the recent years. Probably, 2011 will be the year when we will know which of these strategies (do we change camera formats or not?) will succeed. Does the SLR camera still has the ability to pull the photo market?

Nikon boasted about its first place in Japan sales of SLR cameras in the first half of 2010 (January to June). What is interesting is that they exchanged positions in the list (compared to 2009) and, also, that Panasonic is still in the third position with more than 10% of market share.

Canon moving down by 8% is a major setback. Sony being far from the third spot is also quite a surprise, but it probably reflects the aging of its SLR line of cameras. Both companies still have some work to do here.

However, Canon had also very good news to announce: Their profits tripled over a year. And this comes mostly from photo cameras and laser printers. It means that the market is here. The crisis is over in the photography world (Canon sales are up 15%).

This is the best way to prepare the end of the year 2010: Plenty of product stacking up to grab the renewed interest of avid photographers! Photokina will be interesting.

photo credit: Don Hankins

It appears that -at least in some cases- many ads from Google (like the ones I display on my web sites) are presenting fraudulent business proposals. Usually they are recognizable by the fact that they makes too-good-to-be-true offers (half-price photo cameras or basement-sale prices for pro equipment).

But it is not always easy to recognize this kind of situation. This is where Exposed Scammers comes handy. This is a small web site that is browsing the ads and tries to identify the scammers from our photo-related ads.

One useful thing is that they also provide factual data to support their verdict (it’s not only a way to blindly flog a web site).

Recommended reading. Not only because you may recognize an ad you noticed, but also because it shows how to detect your own scammers.

If you want to avoid those scammers, you can also go directly to those companies that I directly partner with:

• Buy it from B&H (The Professional’s Source)
• Buy from Amazon.com
• Acheter sur Carrefour online

Sony just made a round of announcements that should attract a lot of attention in the photography market (but in relation with video).

First and foremost, here are the first samples of the new range of point-and-shoot photo cameras using an APS-C digital sensor. With the NEX3 and the NEX5, they intend to bring a top-quality photo digital sensor (as found in the digital SLR cameras) in a very compact form factor: LetsGoDigital noticed that the NEX5 is still smaller than an Olympus €-PL1 (even if it is based upon a smaller sensor) or the very recent Samsung NX10.

Watch the vidéo on the web site of Engadget.

At this point, it may even be useful to notice that this is the first (and long-promised) appearance of video capture technology (using AVCHD file format) exploiting an APS-C-size sensor at Sony. This will certainly open the opportunity to demonstrate the technology expected on the upcoming successor to the Alpha 700 (presented in February with another D-SLR camera from the Alpha range and expected to be at a lower price point).

This issue is going to be very interesting to track in the coming weeks (and do not draw conclusions like the Sony Alpha 750 would appear before the end of May).

But this is only the beginning here: Sony also just presented a video camcorder which is still in development, whose launch is expected this Fall. Let’s stop at some of the most striking characteristics:

• It has an APS-C digital sensor (again, like on most of the Digital SLR photo cameras of the Japanese brand)
• It grabs 1080p HD videos
• It receives interchangeable lenses taken from the Alpha series (of digital SLR cameras from Sony)

Didn’t we say that Sony had decided to break ground in video capture using a photo digital sensor?

A nice story ending for those who love digital photography…

Via F/1.0.